Heading into the fall, and coming back from the holiday week, the capital markets are jam-packed with economics, politics, and company developments. The week's narrative was shaped by two significant events: a surprisingly weak jobs report and a key court ruling on tariffs, both of which led to a notable shift in market sentiment. This week saw a renewed sense of optimism for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, driving the major indices higher and causing a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields.

Economic Data: A Weak Jobs Report and Mixed Signals

The week's economic calendar was dominated by a handful of key reports, most notably the disappointing jobs data.

• US August Nonfarm Payrolls: The economy added only 22,000 jobs, far below the consensus forecast of 75,000, signaling a cooling labor market.¹
• US August Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, reaching its highest level since 2021 and reinforcing the weak jobs report.²
• Downward Revision in US Jobs: The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a downward revision to previous jobs numbers, further highlighting the softening trend in employment.
• US 2025 Productivity: US productivity for 2025 rose by 2.7%, providing a positive signal that businesses are becoming more efficient.³
• US July 2025 Trade Balance: The trade deficit widened to $68.2 billion in July, reflecting strong consumer demand for imports despite a slowdown in exports.⁴
• US ISM Services PMI: The Services PMI came in at 53.3, indicating continued expansion in the services sector, albeit at a slightly slower pace than expected.⁵
• China August 2025 Exports: China's exports declined by 5.5% in August, signaling persistent weakness in global demand and raising concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy.⁶

Political Developments: Global Instability

Geopolitical risk increased this week, as fast-breaking developments followed trouble brewing in France, Indonesia, and Nepal, and a possible government shutdown looming in the US.

• Government Upheaval in France: France is grappling with political turmoil as the government faces a no-confidence vote, raising questions about the future of President Macron's administration.⁷
• Resignation of Nepal’s Prime Minister: Nepal's Prime Minister resigned amidst widespread protests and political pressure, adding to the country's ongoing instability.⁸
• Protests Continue in Indonesia: Large-scale protests in Indonesia over rising fuel prices continue to challenge the government and could impact the country's economic stability.⁹
• With the September 30 funding deadline fast approaching, the threat of a government shutdown has become a major topic in Washington and on Wall Street¹⁰. The U.S. government is currently operating on a continuing resolution (CR) that expires at the end of the month, and Congress has yet to pass any of the twelve necessary appropriations bills to fund the government for the next fiscal year.¹¹ Although House and Senate leadership have privately discussed a new, short-term CR to extend funding into December, a shutdown remains a distinct possibility as political disagreements over spending levels and specific policy riders persist.¹²‍

Company News: Tech Giants Make Headlines

• Apple’s Annual Product Event: Apple's annual product event saw the unveiling of the new iPhone 17, along with updates to its smartwatch and AirPods. The new products were met with mixed reviews from analysts.¹³
• Broadcom and OpenAI: Broadcom announced a partnership with OpenAI to develop new artificial intelligence (AI) chips, aiming to compete with Nvidia in the booming AI hardware market.¹⁴
• Oracle rose an astounding 40% on Wednesday, after announcing solid earnings and strong guidance in their cloud computing business, which caught the AI data infrastructure demand  Founder and Chairman Larry Ellison became the richest man, at least for now.

Heading into the end of the third quarter, there's a lot to watch, as treasury bond yields have been fluctuating concerns about the shutdown, debt deficits in the US, and the increasing probability of a September rate cut, while stocks showing surprising resilience, hovering at all time highs in the case of considerable economic and political uncertainty.

‍

Footnotes
¹ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Situation — August 2025.
² Ibid.
³ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Productivity and Costs — Second Quarter 2025.
⁴ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2025.
⁵ Institute for Supply Management. August 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report.
⁶ China General Administration of Customs. China Trade Data — August 2025.

⁷Al Jazeera. "French government collapses after PM Bayrou ousted in confidence vote." September 8, 2025.
⁸ The Times of India. "Nepal unrest: KP Sharma Oli resigns as PM amid massive GenZ protests." September 9, 2025.
⁹ Al Jazeera. "Indonesia in chaos: Five Indonesians give views on why and how to fix it." September 5, 2025.
¹⁰Punchbowl News. "22 days until the shutdown deadline. Republicans need a plan." September 8, 2025.
¹¹ Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "Reduce the Debt with Government Funding Deadline." September 9, 2025.
¹² Holland & Knight. "Holland & Knight Health Dose: September 3, 2025." September 3, 2025.
¹³ The Economic Times. "Apple Awe-Dropping Event to introduce long-awaited products today." September 9, 2025. ¹¹ Benzinga. "Broadcom Ramps Up AI Ambitions With High-Stakes OpenAI Deal." September 8, 2025.
¹⁴ Benzinga. "Broadcom Ramps Up AI Ambitions With High-Stakes OpenAI Deal." September 8, 2025.